برآورد بروز سرطان پروستات در ایران در سطوح ملی و فروملی در طی سال های 1369 تا 1396

برآورد بروز سرطان پروستات در ایران در سطوح ملی و فروملی در طی سال های 1369 تا 1396

4 4 1397

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بيان مسئله. آمارهای صحیح و به روز شده از رخ داد بیماری های مختلف، به ویژه سرطان ها، علاوه بر تسهیل سیاست گذاری آگاه از شواهد، این فرصت را برای پزشکان و پژوهشگران ایجاد می کند تا برای استفاده از دستورالعمل های درمانی و نیز الویت بندی نیازهای پژوهشی کشور از شواهد علمی موجود استفاده کنند.
هدف از اجرای مطالعه. مطالعه پیش رو با هدف برآورد بروز سرطان پروستات در ایران در سطوح ملی و فروملی در بین سال های 1369 (1990 میلادی) تا 1396 (2016 میلادی)، به عنوان بخشی از مطالعه بار ملی و فروملی بیماری ها، حوادث، و ریسک فاکتورها طراحی شده است.
روش انجام مطالعه. داده های بروز سرطان های مختلف برای سال های 1379 (معادل 2000 میلادی) تا 1389 (سال 2010 میلادی) از نظام ثبت سرطان ایران (Iran National Cancer Registry)، به عنوان داده های اصلی این مطالعه، استخراج و مورد استفاده قرار گرفتند. مشکلاتی مانند Duplication، Misalignment، Misclassification، Missing Values، و Incompleteness که در این داده ها وجود داشت با کمک مراحل متعدد آماری (از جمله استفاده از روش های مدل سازی Amelia، Random Intercept Mixed Effects، و Age-spatio-temporal Models) برطرف شد. در نهایت داده های مربوط به بروز سرطان پروستات برای سال های مطالعه از این مجموعه استخراج شد و در این پروژه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت.
نتايج مطالعه. نرخ بروز استاندارد شده سنی سرطان پروستات در سال 1369 برابر 2/2 (3/1 2/3) در هر 100.000 نفر برآورد شد، که این رقم با رشد 27/11 برابری به 8/24 (2/21 6/28) در هر 100.000 نفر در سال 1396 رسید. نرخ افزایش سالانه این شاخص برای سرطان پروستات در سطح کشور در بین سال های مطالعه برابر 7/9% بوده است.
نتيجه گيري نهايي. بروز سرطان پروستات، چه از نظر تعداد کل و چه از نظر نرخ بروز استاندارد شده، در 26 سال گذشته در ایران روند افزایشی داشته است. این روند افزایشی، نیاز به اجرای یک برنامه جامع غربالگری برای سرطان پروستات در کشور را مطرح می کند.
كليد واژه ها :
اپیدمیولوژی؛ ایران؛ بروز؛ سرطان؛ سرطان پروستات
مشخصات دانشجو:
نام:                                          فرهاد پیشگر
رشته تحصيلي:                      پزشکی
مقطع:                                      دکترای حرفه ای
گروه آموزشي:                       مرکز تحقیقات بیماری های غیرواگیر
پست الكترونيك دانشجو:    F-Pishgar@Student.tums.ac.ir
اساتيد راهنما و داور:
استاد راهنما:                          دکتر فرشاد فرزادفر
                                                دکتر محبوبه پارساییان
اساتيد مشاور:                        -
اساتيد داور:                            دکتر عرفان امینی
                                                دکتر صفورا غریب زاده
زمان دفاع :
روز:                                         شنبه
تاريخ:                                      9 / 4 / 97
ساعت:                                    15
مكان دفاع به آدرس:
بزرگراه چمران، تقاطع جلال آل احمد، بعد از دانشكده علوم اجتماعى، پلاك١٠، پژوهشگاه علوم غدد و متابوليسم دانشگاه علوم پزشكى تهران، طبقه دوم
 
 
 
اطلاعات به زبان انگليسي:
Title:
Estimating Prevalence of Prostate Cancer in Iran at National and Sub-National Levels, 1990 - 2016
Abstract:
Introduction. Health policy makers require updated statistics to appropriately deliver the limited resources within the health system, to benchmark outcomes of the system among other countries, and to plan for future challenges. The present work is aimed to report the incidence of prostate cancer at national and subnational levels in Iran, between 1990 to 2016.
Methods. Data on the incidence of multiple cancer groups for years of 2000 through 2010 were gathered from the Iran National Cancer Registry. The datasets went through several data processing bouts to address duplication of cases, misalignment due to changes in administrative divisions in Iran, misclassification of causes, missing values, and incompleteness of the data. The incidence of prostate cancer is collected from the output of these processes and are reported here.
Results. In 2016, 7,964 (6,795 – 9,161) new cases of prostate cancer are reported in Iran, which shows a 29.61-fold increase in this metric compared to 1990. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of prostate cancer in Iran increased from 2.2 (1.3 – 3.2) in 1990 to 24.8 (21.2 – 28.6) in 2016 per 100,000 individuals. In the decomposition analysis, the increase in incident cases of prostate neoplasm between 2006 and 2016 was evaluated as 156.3%, of which 19.7% was due to population growth, 24.3% was due to the aging of the population, and 112.2% was due to increases in age-specific incidence rates.
Conclusions. The incidence of prostate cancer in Iran increased in the past 26 years and is expected to follow the same pattern at least in near future. This secular increasing trend calls for the launch of screening programs for this cancer in Iran.
Keywords:
Epidemiology; Incidence; Iran; Neoplasms; Prostatic neoplasms
 
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مشخصات مقاله: (در صورتي كه مقاله اي از پايان نامه چاپ يا پذيرش شده است)
عنوان مقاله:
Global, Regional and National Burden of Prostate Cancer, 1990 to 2015: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
نويسندگان:
Pishgar F, Ebrahimi H, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Fitzmaurice C, Amini E.
نام و شماره مجله :
The Journal of Urology. 2018;199(5):1224-32.

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